Jul
16
Top 10 Useful Ideas to Plan for your Retirement
Filed Under Investing | Comments Off
Pnreddy asked:
What’s your age now? In some point in your life, have you ever thought of retiring from what you are doing right now? Is the idea of retirement ever occurs to you? Or, are you open to the truth that everything has an end? Well, if you’ve spent your most silent moment pondering about all these things, then you are somehow ready for a retirement.
So if you are on your 30s and the thought of retirement already occurred to you, then don’t worry. There’s nothing wrong with that. After all, it is better to think of your future as early as possible.
So what is retirement planning all about? What are and aren’t involved in the retirement planning? There are essentially top ten useful moves to take when preparing for retirement.
Step 1: Finances? Review Everything about It
Reviewing your finances is obviously the most primary thing to do during retirement planning. This is essentially for the reason that if you know where you are or what status in life you belong, you will certainly know where you are heading. Just think about this as your plan for studying.
If you think you have the budget to support your studies, then you know that you can study. So in terms of retirement, it is a rule to set your budget first before you consider an eventual retirement. It may take time though, particularly if you find yourself up to elbows in debt. If this is the case, then it’s clear that you are not yet ready for it.
Step 2: Set Goals and Priorities and Think about Them
When thinking about your future living, you should start setting goals and priorities. It is our goals that motivate us to do something for our own benefit, but it is our actions in fact that bring out the results. In either case, developing goals and priorities in life is very much required.
So to begin, ask yourself as to how you want to spend your time after retiring from work. Where do you want to live? What do you want to do? What about your family? How do they fit into your retirement plans? Knowing the answers to these questions will somehow make you feel ready and comfortable to kick back and continue living. It will help you realize what you need in terms of money and health.
Step 3: Consider and Develop a Healthy Lifestyle
Another perfect thing to do after your retirement is to develop a healthy lifestyle. It is now time to think about your health. After all, you are aging and that means you need to take care much of your health to continue living.
A sense of commitment is also required to maintain a healthy life. Just be active and pay much attention and dedication to your goal of becoming healthier. You will be surprised to wake up one day with the best posture and health possible.
Step 4: Learn About Retirement Plans
As you may know, there are a number of retirement plans available on the market these days. However, not all of these retirement plans may suit your requirements. So to start figuring out which of the available plans is best for you, consider first your employer’s retirement plan. If possible, try to talk to your Human Resource representative about your employer’s retirement plan.
Know whether your employer provides a pension or not. Then ask for a summary description of the plan, as well as an explanation for everything that is involved. Lastly, find out what you can contribute and try to inquire about vesting and the like.
Step 5: Review Your Benefit Statement
So you’ve decided on what plan to take. It is now time to review your benefit statement. This statement is provided to you by your employer periodically and it is where you can find your total advantages along with the amount that is owned by you. Review this statement to make sure that everything is going smoothly. In case you found certain areas that require to be questioned, talk to your benefits administrator as soon as possible.
Step 6: Open an IRA
IRA is one of the most common retirement plans in the world. It is often given to those who are married if they or their spouse has earned income. Well, there are two types of IRA. The first is the traditional IRA and the other is the Roth IRA. Both of these types has its own requirements and standards, and each has its own function.
So you should communicate and ask for help from the financial institution you are considering, to figure out if the IRA is perfect for you. If you found that you are eligible to open an IRA, then wait for nothing. Open it as soon as you possibly can. Once you have opened it then start contributing to the maximum amount allowed each year.
Step 7: Look at Your Social Security Statement and Review It
It is usual that every year, you will receive a Social Security Statement that stresses a record of your earnings that have been labeled as Social Security taxes paid. This statement generally comes about three months before your birthday. Well, if you receive this statement, review it carefully. Ensure that it presents an estimate of the benefits that you and your family might receive from those earnings.
If you have certain questions, then there’s no other better way you can do than to contact the Social Security System. Simply ask for help directly through them. I’m sure that they are willing to answer all your queries.
Step 8: Assess Your Life Insurance
When you retire, you may or may not need a life insurance. Although you have the choice, it is always a better idea to do your homework first to identify what particular kinds of benefits is attached to it. This is particularly applicable to those who have families who would be left without other means of income if you were to retire from life.
Also note that a life insurance policy can also be used to pay the taxes on your inherited IRAs or perhaps other retirement funds that have been set in your properties.
Step 9: Think About Long Term Care Insurance
Many of those who have considered retirement think about long term care insurance. They consider this option knowing that it will help them support their living. Of course, no one likes to live and being left in a nursing home, which is but a strong possibility when a person gets older. Long term care insurance may also be useful in case you will be affected by a major illness which can possibly wipe out your retirement savings. It is for this reason in fact that long term care insurance is needed.
Step 10: Talk to Your Spouse and Family about Your Retirement Plan
As expected, this would be the last step to take when considering a retirement planning. This is particularly significant knowing that your family can be affected by whatever decision you may make. So if possible, talk to your spouse and family about your retirement plan, and ensure that they understand about your plan and that your plan can help you support them. Just make them aware about it. That’s simply it!
So everything has been said. Well, these above mentioned ideas may not guarantee that you will be ready for that big retirement of yours. But in any case, these will somehow give you an idea on how to prepare. So noting all of these is still worth the effort.
PEEBLES
What’s your age now? In some point in your life, have you ever thought of retiring from what you are doing right now? Is the idea of retirement ever occurs to you? Or, are you open to the truth that everything has an end? Well, if you’ve spent your most silent moment pondering about all these things, then you are somehow ready for a retirement.
So if you are on your 30s and the thought of retirement already occurred to you, then don’t worry. There’s nothing wrong with that. After all, it is better to think of your future as early as possible.
So what is retirement planning all about? What are and aren’t involved in the retirement planning? There are essentially top ten useful moves to take when preparing for retirement.
Step 1: Finances? Review Everything about It
Reviewing your finances is obviously the most primary thing to do during retirement planning. This is essentially for the reason that if you know where you are or what status in life you belong, you will certainly know where you are heading. Just think about this as your plan for studying.
If you think you have the budget to support your studies, then you know that you can study. So in terms of retirement, it is a rule to set your budget first before you consider an eventual retirement. It may take time though, particularly if you find yourself up to elbows in debt. If this is the case, then it’s clear that you are not yet ready for it.
Step 2: Set Goals and Priorities and Think about Them
When thinking about your future living, you should start setting goals and priorities. It is our goals that motivate us to do something for our own benefit, but it is our actions in fact that bring out the results. In either case, developing goals and priorities in life is very much required.
So to begin, ask yourself as to how you want to spend your time after retiring from work. Where do you want to live? What do you want to do? What about your family? How do they fit into your retirement plans? Knowing the answers to these questions will somehow make you feel ready and comfortable to kick back and continue living. It will help you realize what you need in terms of money and health.
Step 3: Consider and Develop a Healthy Lifestyle
Another perfect thing to do after your retirement is to develop a healthy lifestyle. It is now time to think about your health. After all, you are aging and that means you need to take care much of your health to continue living.
A sense of commitment is also required to maintain a healthy life. Just be active and pay much attention and dedication to your goal of becoming healthier. You will be surprised to wake up one day with the best posture and health possible.
Step 4: Learn About Retirement Plans
As you may know, there are a number of retirement plans available on the market these days. However, not all of these retirement plans may suit your requirements. So to start figuring out which of the available plans is best for you, consider first your employer’s retirement plan. If possible, try to talk to your Human Resource representative about your employer’s retirement plan.
Know whether your employer provides a pension or not. Then ask for a summary description of the plan, as well as an explanation for everything that is involved. Lastly, find out what you can contribute and try to inquire about vesting and the like.
Step 5: Review Your Benefit Statement
So you’ve decided on what plan to take. It is now time to review your benefit statement. This statement is provided to you by your employer periodically and it is where you can find your total advantages along with the amount that is owned by you. Review this statement to make sure that everything is going smoothly. In case you found certain areas that require to be questioned, talk to your benefits administrator as soon as possible.
Step 6: Open an IRA
IRA is one of the most common retirement plans in the world. It is often given to those who are married if they or their spouse has earned income. Well, there are two types of IRA. The first is the traditional IRA and the other is the Roth IRA. Both of these types has its own requirements and standards, and each has its own function.
So you should communicate and ask for help from the financial institution you are considering, to figure out if the IRA is perfect for you. If you found that you are eligible to open an IRA, then wait for nothing. Open it as soon as you possibly can. Once you have opened it then start contributing to the maximum amount allowed each year.
Step 7: Look at Your Social Security Statement and Review It
It is usual that every year, you will receive a Social Security Statement that stresses a record of your earnings that have been labeled as Social Security taxes paid. This statement generally comes about three months before your birthday. Well, if you receive this statement, review it carefully. Ensure that it presents an estimate of the benefits that you and your family might receive from those earnings.
If you have certain questions, then there’s no other better way you can do than to contact the Social Security System. Simply ask for help directly through them. I’m sure that they are willing to answer all your queries.
Step 8: Assess Your Life Insurance
When you retire, you may or may not need a life insurance. Although you have the choice, it is always a better idea to do your homework first to identify what particular kinds of benefits is attached to it. This is particularly applicable to those who have families who would be left without other means of income if you were to retire from life.
Also note that a life insurance policy can also be used to pay the taxes on your inherited IRAs or perhaps other retirement funds that have been set in your properties.
Step 9: Think About Long Term Care Insurance
Many of those who have considered retirement think about long term care insurance. They consider this option knowing that it will help them support their living. Of course, no one likes to live and being left in a nursing home, which is but a strong possibility when a person gets older. Long term care insurance may also be useful in case you will be affected by a major illness which can possibly wipe out your retirement savings. It is for this reason in fact that long term care insurance is needed.
Step 10: Talk to Your Spouse and Family about Your Retirement Plan
As expected, this would be the last step to take when considering a retirement planning. This is particularly significant knowing that your family can be affected by whatever decision you may make. So if possible, talk to your spouse and family about your retirement plan, and ensure that they understand about your plan and that your plan can help you support them. Just make them aware about it. That’s simply it!
So everything has been said. Well, these above mentioned ideas may not guarantee that you will be ready for that big retirement of yours. But in any case, these will somehow give you an idea on how to prepare. So noting all of these is still worth the effort.
PEEBLES
Feb
28
Retirement Planning: Plan your Retirement for Income Through Mutual Fund Investment
Filed Under Investing | Comments Off
dipendra asked:
Most of the people I have met have not planned for their retirement as they say ‘future is unpredictable and we need to live in present’ but my dear friend’s future is the outcome of present, our present will decide our future. When we think of retirement we generally think of old age, a period when you have to give up the job and sit at home doing nothing. Contrary to the fact, most of the retiree lives a very active life. We need to seriously consider out planning towards retirement because once we retiree our income stops coming but our expenses remain as it is and in some cases it rises with the rising inflation.
In this regard mutual fund has turned out to be the right answer for making retirement planning easier and safer. Mutual fund being managed by professionals is a key to effective retirement planning.
Some people like it. Some people don’t but the fact is that retirement is a reality for every working person. Most young people today think cannot think of retirement as reality as they believe in ‘living at present’. However, it is important to plan for your post-retirement life if you wish to retain your financial independence and maintain a comfortable standard of living even when you are no longer earning. This is extremely important, because, unlike developed nations, India does not have a social security net. In India people still depend upon bank savings and fixed deposits for retirement purpose, which is unfortunately inadequate.
Retirement Planning acquires added importance because of the fact that though longevity has increased the number of working years haven’t, so you end up spending the last phase of your life without earning.
In simple words, retirement planning means making sure you will have enough money to live on after retiring from work. Retirement should be the best period of your life, when you can literally sit back and relax or enjoy your life by reaping benefits of what you earn in so many years of hard work. But it is easier said than done. To achieve a hassle-free retired life, you need to make prudent investment decisions during your working life, thus putting your hard-earned money to work for you in future.
With the special features of mutual funds like Systematic Investment Plan, Systematic withdrawal plan, systematic transfer plan in addition to other unique features of different funds, the investor can easily plan for its post retirement requirements and ways to achieve it.
Unlike many other countries of west, in India we do not have state-sponsored social security for the retired people. While you may be entitled to a pension or income during retirement, but will it be sufficient post retirement.
Although the compulsory savings in provident fund through both employee and employer contributions should offer some cushion, it may not be enough to support you throughout your retirement. That is why retirement planning is extremely important for every one. More over with mutual funds the investors can actually plan for themselves and also achieve their planned objectives. As compared to direct equities this option of mutual fund is much safer for planning your retirement corpus.
There are many reasons for the working individuals to secure their future emergence of separate families and its attendant insecurity, increasing uncertainties in personal and professional life, the growing trends of seeking early retirement and rising health risks are among few important risks. Besides falling interest rates, also the sustained increase in the cost of living make it a compelling case for individuals to plan their finances to fund their retired life.
Planning for retirement is as important as planning your career and marriage. We need to take conscious and careful decisions to prepare for our retirement. Life takes its own course and from the poorest to the wealthiest, every one gets older with time. We get older every day, without realizing. With our coming old age we tend to become more understanding to the facts of life and realize the importance and impact of retirement. The future depends to a great extent on the choices you make today. Right decisions with the help of proper planning, taken at the right time will assure smile and success at the time of retirement.
In my words, retirement planning means making sure you will have enough money to live on after leaving your work. Retirement should be that period of your life, when you can sit back and relax. Retirement should bring more of enjoyment in your life by reaping benefits of what you earn in so many years of hard work. But it is easier said than done. Most of the people live their worst life during retirement. To achieve a hassle-free retired life, you need to make right investment decisions during your working life, thus putting your hard-earned money to work for you in future. If you are not very aware of the investment that you need to undertake then you can easily take help of online advisers to help you with your retirement plan through mutual funds. The earlier you start the better it is for you.
Now retirement planning can be done with a single click and with the advice of a registered mutual fund advisor by Association of mutual funds in India (AMFI). Fill this retirement questionnaire to know your current financial situation and your investor profile which will help you plan for a worry-free retirement.
This is a no obligation free mutual fund advisory; investors can make informed mutual fund investment decisions with the expertise of our advisors.
MIZE
Most of the people I have met have not planned for their retirement as they say ‘future is unpredictable and we need to live in present’ but my dear friend’s future is the outcome of present, our present will decide our future. When we think of retirement we generally think of old age, a period when you have to give up the job and sit at home doing nothing. Contrary to the fact, most of the retiree lives a very active life. We need to seriously consider out planning towards retirement because once we retiree our income stops coming but our expenses remain as it is and in some cases it rises with the rising inflation.
In this regard mutual fund has turned out to be the right answer for making retirement planning easier and safer. Mutual fund being managed by professionals is a key to effective retirement planning.
Some people like it. Some people don’t but the fact is that retirement is a reality for every working person. Most young people today think cannot think of retirement as reality as they believe in ‘living at present’. However, it is important to plan for your post-retirement life if you wish to retain your financial independence and maintain a comfortable standard of living even when you are no longer earning. This is extremely important, because, unlike developed nations, India does not have a social security net. In India people still depend upon bank savings and fixed deposits for retirement purpose, which is unfortunately inadequate.
Retirement Planning acquires added importance because of the fact that though longevity has increased the number of working years haven’t, so you end up spending the last phase of your life without earning.
In simple words, retirement planning means making sure you will have enough money to live on after retiring from work. Retirement should be the best period of your life, when you can literally sit back and relax or enjoy your life by reaping benefits of what you earn in so many years of hard work. But it is easier said than done. To achieve a hassle-free retired life, you need to make prudent investment decisions during your working life, thus putting your hard-earned money to work for you in future.
With the special features of mutual funds like Systematic Investment Plan, Systematic withdrawal plan, systematic transfer plan in addition to other unique features of different funds, the investor can easily plan for its post retirement requirements and ways to achieve it.
Unlike many other countries of west, in India we do not have state-sponsored social security for the retired people. While you may be entitled to a pension or income during retirement, but will it be sufficient post retirement.
Although the compulsory savings in provident fund through both employee and employer contributions should offer some cushion, it may not be enough to support you throughout your retirement. That is why retirement planning is extremely important for every one. More over with mutual funds the investors can actually plan for themselves and also achieve their planned objectives. As compared to direct equities this option of mutual fund is much safer for planning your retirement corpus.
There are many reasons for the working individuals to secure their future emergence of separate families and its attendant insecurity, increasing uncertainties in personal and professional life, the growing trends of seeking early retirement and rising health risks are among few important risks. Besides falling interest rates, also the sustained increase in the cost of living make it a compelling case for individuals to plan their finances to fund their retired life.
Planning for retirement is as important as planning your career and marriage. We need to take conscious and careful decisions to prepare for our retirement. Life takes its own course and from the poorest to the wealthiest, every one gets older with time. We get older every day, without realizing. With our coming old age we tend to become more understanding to the facts of life and realize the importance and impact of retirement. The future depends to a great extent on the choices you make today. Right decisions with the help of proper planning, taken at the right time will assure smile and success at the time of retirement.
In my words, retirement planning means making sure you will have enough money to live on after leaving your work. Retirement should be that period of your life, when you can sit back and relax. Retirement should bring more of enjoyment in your life by reaping benefits of what you earn in so many years of hard work. But it is easier said than done. Most of the people live their worst life during retirement. To achieve a hassle-free retired life, you need to make right investment decisions during your working life, thus putting your hard-earned money to work for you in future. If you are not very aware of the investment that you need to undertake then you can easily take help of online advisers to help you with your retirement plan through mutual funds. The earlier you start the better it is for you.
Now retirement planning can be done with a single click and with the advice of a registered mutual fund advisor by Association of mutual funds in India (AMFI). Fill this retirement questionnaire to know your current financial situation and your investor profile which will help you plan for a worry-free retirement.
This is a no obligation free mutual fund advisory; investors can make informed mutual fund investment decisions with the expertise of our advisors.
MIZE
Oct
11
Terminal Wealth Dispersion, Life Expectancy and Individual Retirement Accounts
Filed Under Investing | Comments Off
Mike Kennedy asked:
Terminal wealth dispersion is the technical term that describes the variability of the future value of investment portfolios. This inevitable variability means that no one knows what the value of their investment portfolio will be when they reach retirement age or at any time during their retirement. And the uncertainty of individual’s life expectancies compounds this problem.
Hedging against the risks associated with these two factors places an onerous burden on individuals. Although this hedging could result in a very comfortable retirement, if one can afford the hedge and their timing is right, the potential downside risk is so great that it may be deemed unacceptable by many individuals. So one has to ask “Do individuals really prefer to forgo a sure but modest retirement income and play the odds with their retirement savings in hopes of being very well off in retirement?”
With individual accounts, individuals lose the benefit of the pooling of risks. The two risks that force individuals to over-save are investment risk and the risk of living beyond the average life expectancy. In both cases the outcomes, terminal wealth and life span, are highly variable. When the risks are pooled for a large number of individuals over many overlapping life spans, the average outcomes are highly predictable, which is what makes traditional pension plans work so well.
Traditional pension plans exist, for all intents and purposes, in perpetuity. This being the case, they can build reserves during good times in the financial markets and weather the bad times, thus enabling them to make consistent payouts to retirees regardless of the timing of their retirement. Unfortunately, individuals do not get to choose their holding periods or the years of their retirement and must take whatever comes along, and what comes along might be good or it might be bad. Thus individuals must set savings goals that are sufficiently high to hedge against the risk of the average return of an investment portfolio over its holding period falling well short of that which would be expected very long term.
The relatively short duration of individual’s holding periods leave them very susceptible to the effects of market cycles, which are notoriously unpredictable in amplitude and frequency. Being broadly diversified mitigates this risk but does not eliminate it, as it’s entirely possible for a worldwide bear market to occur during one’s holding period. Then at the end of the holding period for wealth accumulation, a second holding period begins, which will be the term of retirement, and this second holding period carries the same risks as the first, but at a time in life when there is no source of income to make up for portfolio under-performance.
The other component of risk that individuals must hedge is the risk represented by the uncertainty of one’s life span, which means that individuals must aim even higher when setting their savings goals. The managers of large pension plans can depend on retirees living on average for only the average life expectancy of employees who reach retirement age. The average life expectancy for someone who reaches the age of 66 is currently 82 years, and 66 is currently the age when workers are eligible for full Social Security benefits, which makes it a reasonable baseline. Based on those assumptions, the average term of retirement would be 18 years and pension plans should only have to be funded to the extent necessary to cover the cost of this average term of retirement.
Individuals, however, don’t know how long they’re going to live, so they must over-save to ensure that they don’t run out of money before they run out of time. This need to over-save is independent of the first need, thus the need to over-save is compounded, i.e., an individual needs to save enough to cover the cost of living well beyond the average life expectancy and the targeted amount of savings at retirement age must be great enough to ensure with a reasonably high level of certainty that the actual amount on hand at retirement is at least the bare minimum necessary to get by on.
A popular estimate of the term of retirement for which individuals must plan is 30 years. Saving enough to cover the cost of a 30-year retirement is a much greater burden than saving for an 18-year retirement, but planning on a shorter retirement exposes individuals to tremendous risk. It also exposes taxpayers to tremendous risk, as individuals who outlive their savings will undoubtedly require some form of public assistance to make ends meet and are likely become wards of the state when they become physically incapable of caring for themselves.
An individual who bases their retirement saving on living to the age of 96 but only lives to be 82 will have forgone a lot of pleasures in life, such as travel, fine dining and better vehicles, that they could otherwise have enjoyed. But many individuals just don’t have the level of income required to support the saving rate necessary to amass the wealth required to hedge against the downside of terminal wealth dispersion and the possibility of living well past the average life expectancy. For them it’s not a matter of forgone consumption, it’s a matter of going through life with the knowledge that they are likely to spend their golden years living in abject poverty and that that will be their reward for 40 or 50 years of hard work. And it gets worse!
Some economists now believe that within 15 years or so, 100% of Social Security benefits will be spent on medical expenses: Medicare Parts B and D premiums, copayments, uncovered expenses and medigap insurance premiums. If that becomes the case, anyone without substantial savings or a defined benefit pension will be looking for public assistance the day after they retire.
With the situation already at this state, adding private Social Security accounts to the mix would be like throwing gas on a fire, as individual Social Security accounts carry the same risks as other individual retirement accounts. Those who have tried to kill Social Security since its inception find private accounts very appealing. But, not so coincidentally, most of them seem to be in the enviable position of not needing Social Security to support their retirement. More recently, younger workers, too, have come to oppose Social Security, but not for the same reason as the traditional opponents. Young workers may be crushed by the burden of social Security and may never receive any benefits from the system. Those who oppose Social Security simply because it’s a social program should be expending their efforts on reforming it rather than killing it.
If Social Security had been managed like a pension plan rather than a pyramid scheme, its current situation wouldn’t be so dire. Indeed, it might very well be a fully funded, functional system. CalPERS and other large public employee retirement plans have operated successfully for decades, with success being defined as being able to meet their obligations, not having an adverse effect on the financial markets, no scandalous events attributable to malfeasance by the plans’ sponsors and being free of influence from elected officials. There’s no reason that Social Security can’t also be managed in such a manner. It would literally take an act of Congress to do this, but the hardest part for Congress would be letting the system run without their interfering with its operation.
Passing off the burden of retirement to individuals was a great deal for corporations but it’s a very poor deal for most individuals, and extending individual accounts to include the Social Security system would only make a bad situation worse. It’s not a poor deal for all individuals because there will be some who can afford to save a substantial portion of their income and whose holding periods will coincide with bull markets, thus putting their wealth in the upper range of their terminal wealth dispersion, and who also live a long, healthy life. They will be the ones who benefit from over-saving and living beyond the average life expectancy, but they may end up forfeiting a portion of their wealth in the form of taxes to support the less fortunate. I don’t believe that is what the public expects from a well-conceived system.
BAKER
Terminal wealth dispersion is the technical term that describes the variability of the future value of investment portfolios. This inevitable variability means that no one knows what the value of their investment portfolio will be when they reach retirement age or at any time during their retirement. And the uncertainty of individual’s life expectancies compounds this problem.
Hedging against the risks associated with these two factors places an onerous burden on individuals. Although this hedging could result in a very comfortable retirement, if one can afford the hedge and their timing is right, the potential downside risk is so great that it may be deemed unacceptable by many individuals. So one has to ask “Do individuals really prefer to forgo a sure but modest retirement income and play the odds with their retirement savings in hopes of being very well off in retirement?”
With individual accounts, individuals lose the benefit of the pooling of risks. The two risks that force individuals to over-save are investment risk and the risk of living beyond the average life expectancy. In both cases the outcomes, terminal wealth and life span, are highly variable. When the risks are pooled for a large number of individuals over many overlapping life spans, the average outcomes are highly predictable, which is what makes traditional pension plans work so well.
Traditional pension plans exist, for all intents and purposes, in perpetuity. This being the case, they can build reserves during good times in the financial markets and weather the bad times, thus enabling them to make consistent payouts to retirees regardless of the timing of their retirement. Unfortunately, individuals do not get to choose their holding periods or the years of their retirement and must take whatever comes along, and what comes along might be good or it might be bad. Thus individuals must set savings goals that are sufficiently high to hedge against the risk of the average return of an investment portfolio over its holding period falling well short of that which would be expected very long term.
The relatively short duration of individual’s holding periods leave them very susceptible to the effects of market cycles, which are notoriously unpredictable in amplitude and frequency. Being broadly diversified mitigates this risk but does not eliminate it, as it’s entirely possible for a worldwide bear market to occur during one’s holding period. Then at the end of the holding period for wealth accumulation, a second holding period begins, which will be the term of retirement, and this second holding period carries the same risks as the first, but at a time in life when there is no source of income to make up for portfolio under-performance.
The other component of risk that individuals must hedge is the risk represented by the uncertainty of one’s life span, which means that individuals must aim even higher when setting their savings goals. The managers of large pension plans can depend on retirees living on average for only the average life expectancy of employees who reach retirement age. The average life expectancy for someone who reaches the age of 66 is currently 82 years, and 66 is currently the age when workers are eligible for full Social Security benefits, which makes it a reasonable baseline. Based on those assumptions, the average term of retirement would be 18 years and pension plans should only have to be funded to the extent necessary to cover the cost of this average term of retirement.
Individuals, however, don’t know how long they’re going to live, so they must over-save to ensure that they don’t run out of money before they run out of time. This need to over-save is independent of the first need, thus the need to over-save is compounded, i.e., an individual needs to save enough to cover the cost of living well beyond the average life expectancy and the targeted amount of savings at retirement age must be great enough to ensure with a reasonably high level of certainty that the actual amount on hand at retirement is at least the bare minimum necessary to get by on.
A popular estimate of the term of retirement for which individuals must plan is 30 years. Saving enough to cover the cost of a 30-year retirement is a much greater burden than saving for an 18-year retirement, but planning on a shorter retirement exposes individuals to tremendous risk. It also exposes taxpayers to tremendous risk, as individuals who outlive their savings will undoubtedly require some form of public assistance to make ends meet and are likely become wards of the state when they become physically incapable of caring for themselves.
An individual who bases their retirement saving on living to the age of 96 but only lives to be 82 will have forgone a lot of pleasures in life, such as travel, fine dining and better vehicles, that they could otherwise have enjoyed. But many individuals just don’t have the level of income required to support the saving rate necessary to amass the wealth required to hedge against the downside of terminal wealth dispersion and the possibility of living well past the average life expectancy. For them it’s not a matter of forgone consumption, it’s a matter of going through life with the knowledge that they are likely to spend their golden years living in abject poverty and that that will be their reward for 40 or 50 years of hard work. And it gets worse!
Some economists now believe that within 15 years or so, 100% of Social Security benefits will be spent on medical expenses: Medicare Parts B and D premiums, copayments, uncovered expenses and medigap insurance premiums. If that becomes the case, anyone without substantial savings or a defined benefit pension will be looking for public assistance the day after they retire.
With the situation already at this state, adding private Social Security accounts to the mix would be like throwing gas on a fire, as individual Social Security accounts carry the same risks as other individual retirement accounts. Those who have tried to kill Social Security since its inception find private accounts very appealing. But, not so coincidentally, most of them seem to be in the enviable position of not needing Social Security to support their retirement. More recently, younger workers, too, have come to oppose Social Security, but not for the same reason as the traditional opponents. Young workers may be crushed by the burden of social Security and may never receive any benefits from the system. Those who oppose Social Security simply because it’s a social program should be expending their efforts on reforming it rather than killing it.
If Social Security had been managed like a pension plan rather than a pyramid scheme, its current situation wouldn’t be so dire. Indeed, it might very well be a fully funded, functional system. CalPERS and other large public employee retirement plans have operated successfully for decades, with success being defined as being able to meet their obligations, not having an adverse effect on the financial markets, no scandalous events attributable to malfeasance by the plans’ sponsors and being free of influence from elected officials. There’s no reason that Social Security can’t also be managed in such a manner. It would literally take an act of Congress to do this, but the hardest part for Congress would be letting the system run without their interfering with its operation.
Passing off the burden of retirement to individuals was a great deal for corporations but it’s a very poor deal for most individuals, and extending individual accounts to include the Social Security system would only make a bad situation worse. It’s not a poor deal for all individuals because there will be some who can afford to save a substantial portion of their income and whose holding periods will coincide with bull markets, thus putting their wealth in the upper range of their terminal wealth dispersion, and who also live a long, healthy life. They will be the ones who benefit from over-saving and living beyond the average life expectancy, but they may end up forfeiting a portion of their wealth in the form of taxes to support the less fortunate. I don’t believe that is what the public expects from a well-conceived system.
BAKER